Uncertainty-quantifying models for chemical-kinetic rates

In this study, strategies are proposed for modeling the input uncertainties in combustion calculations under chemical-rate uncertainties using as an example hydrogen-oxygen kinetics. For this purpose, this report is divided into the following sections. In Section 2, an assessment is made to ascertain the limitations of state-of-the-art treatments of experimentally-derived chemical-kinetic uncertainties. Based on these limitations, Section 3 proposes a number of modeling strategies and, in particular, an “active-chemical mechanism” concept that is able to treat chemical uncertainties in a general manner and can be used in conjunction with combustion formulations. Finally, conclusions are drawn in Section 4. A follow-up article in this same volume (Urzay et al. 2012) provides a turbulent-combustion model that takes the input-uncertainty descriptions proposed in this investigation and uses them in numerical calculations subject to chemical-kinetic uncertainties.